Thursday, January 26, 2012

Super Bowl Line Dips as Vegas Owners Second Guess Themselves

As we near a week before Super Bowl XLVI, which gives us the much anticipated rematch form 2007 between the New York Football Giants and the New England Patriots, Vegas owners are beginning to question the 3.5 point spread they initially favored Tom Brady's Pats with. If your not familiar with betting and spreads, a 3.5 point spread is a lot in such an evenly matched game, especially when the underdog beat the favorite earlier in the year at the favorites home field. The extra half point, known as the hook, becomes the difference maker in close games as in football as three points can be scored by a mere field goal. When you need more than 3 points now your asking your team to win by either two scores or a touchdown. As soon as the spread was released to the public following the Giants overtime victory over the 49ers the public jumped on the Giants, as they should have. ESPN Radio Host and Sports Nation Co-Anchor Colin Cowherd was shocked when he saw the spread following the Giants win. "I have been in the business 22 years," he said on Monday. "I have never seen a stranger line than this. I tried to guess the line on the Super Bowl, I had Giants about 6.5, 7. They've got the Patriots as a favorite? Wow!" I guess we know where Colin's money will be come February 5th. By the next day Vegas was forced to bring down the spread to Pats -3. In the betting world when heavy action is placed on a team it usually causes a spread change. Usually once Vegas changes the spread the action either goes the other way or evens out. In this case the public did not shy away and they continued to bet the underdog Giants. Just recently the spread dropped again to 2.5 points. This puts Patriots supporters in a great position as now if New England wins by 3 they win their bets. MGM Mirage Sports Book Manager Jeff Stoneback doesn't think his book will go any lower than 2.5 and is also hoping the number doesn't land on 3 by game day. Odds makers do not want the head ache of refunding all those bets on Super Bowl Sunday if the Patriots were to win by 3. I personally think it's very tough to beat a team three times in a row, which is what Big Blue will attempt come Super Bowl Sunday. Anytime you give Brady and Bellichek two weeks to prepare for a game, the odds of you beating them go down. If Gronkowski's ankle is okay and he is able to practice next week I don't see a way New England loses this one and right now I am one of the few that believe they'll cover the 2.5 or 3 points. I'll have a prediction some time next week, so for now stay tuned... 

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